for me RAM is a perfected technology, new buses will come, more speed, but it will fundamentally be the same manufacturing process, same materials. The prospect is that LLMs will keep getting larger, more RAM will be required, and the prices will keep getting higher, or along the curve, while the demand will keep up with it because everything has RAM in it. Do you see a point in the future where the industry forks out of this, and there’s an alternative where the end user is not affected as much from the demand of this resource?
When the AI bubble pops RAM prices will fall back, but they’ll never be as low as they were before AI. AI is going nowhere, it’s not quite like the Internet but it’s still got its uses. So I think you’ll see RAM prices fluctuate with an overall positive slope after the bubble pops.
The days of cheap RAM are over for the most part.
There will be a point where LLM investment scales back to fit closer to its actual economic productivity, once these companies and VCs run low on cash to shovel into the furnace. Then the prices will drop.
Once Chinese companies ramp up production, there’s going to be cheap RAM again. Also, the bubble will pop eventually.
*RAMp up production
No. Most of the Chinese RAM production is going to Chinese data centers, as per Chinese government mandate.
Yeah if anyone is hoping for cheaper RAM from China flooding western markets. It may happen but it’s not happening this decade. Hope you’re ready to wait until 2030s because that’s how long it’s going to be short of the whole AI thing violently imploding.
Which means Chinese data centers will not buy as much non-chinese RAM any more, so the prices will still fall due to that.
And why would any of these players invest $100b to lower their product’s prices at the risk of overproducing
Might want to ask yourself why Chinese companies did this with stuff like solar panels and EVs, and the answer to your question will come to you.
Chinese century NGL, even with more complex items such as CPUs and GPUs China is coming along in leaps and bounds .
Exactly, and the rate of progress there is just stupefying.
Scaling up fabs to increase supply is a very long-term process. You don’t want to do it if you think the demand won’t last at least several years. Maybe RAM manufacturers are drinking the koolaid and are spinning up fabs as fast as possible. Maybe they see the writing on the wall and are just cashing in until the demand dissolves.
The RAM prices will come down when “AI” finally implodes and the tech bros have finished extracting every last bit of venture capital from idiots.
ChatGPT will run out of money April 2027.
Also, more adaptation to Chinese-made RAM. The difference is negligible.
I can’t wait till I can purchase China RAM! 👌
You realy think that big companies work in minus? Why would they? Youtube was working for years without a single add so did they run out of money…? Do you know how many sites and apps are free? So who is paying for them? Let me explain to you how software world works. You make chatgpt and you give it for free to people, than you collect all personal data people tell to chat gpt and you sell that data to powerfull people that control this world from shadows. So you make money and they get info they want and people are bunch of sheep that dont know anything as usual… And on top of that you make chat gpt premium so some people are paying to be spyed on and you get bonus money and noone is wandering from where you are getting money because there is chat gpt premium and noone know how many people have it and how much money you make of those rare individuals… Wala thank you for reading…
Goddamn what Kind of lobotomy did you get? Full service?
Aside from your apparent phobia to make your text readable via punctuations, here’s the main points I found.
- The deep state is not a thing. You don’t need one if the US exists
- User data is not worth the millions openai is shoveling towards datacenters. Even google and others live off of enterprise and subscriptions
- Where are you even getting these numbers from? OpenAI publishes their quarterly earnings, and that has clearly shown that they are losing money and rely on investor bailouts
1 of 2 things will need to happen for the shortage to be resolved.
- A new fabrication will need to be brought online or
- The companies that have purchased the fabrication time cancel their order because they go bust.
I believe 2 will happen before 1 because 1 will take several years to happen.
If we’re lucky, maybe there’s a sweet spot where new production for RAM ramps up just as the AI companies run out of money and cancel their orders, and then there’s suddenly a huge surplus of RAM that they need to unload in a hurry lol.
I don’t see that happening, when the bubble pops and the orders are cancelled, the people later in the queue will be brought forward.
Gamers Nexus made a video recently where they were discussing a new Chinese company/manufacturer in the RAM game. It’s pretty early on, but looks promising.
For your second point/option: I agree something like this will happen first. But I don’t know if it will be a cancellation on all “fronts.” Microsoft’s CEO stated they HAVE the (DIM) RAM, but they DON’T have the GPU’s. So Nvidia is behind on manufacturing, but Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix have actually got the stock, they’re just ONLY selling to corporations right now (or arbitrarily inflating prices for consumers to meet the inflated price they’re selling to corporations who already have more than they need, but refuse to stop buying).
It’s pretty early on, but looks promising.
- Technology breakthrough: Manufacturing more ram for less money.
That’s just a more handwavy version of 1. Unless you are saying that new technology will come along that will make existing fabrication facilities capable of higher throughput without substantial upgrades/expansions to those facilities? It seems unlikely to happen any sooner than 1 does either way, unless there is a high readiness level technology that’s going to massively disrupt the established field of industrial engineering in the next year that I haven’t heard anything about
Then the current companies buying it will just buy more. So far there isn’t significant movement in the space to try and do more with less, and the current strategy is to just keep throwing more resources at it.
I’m not sure there’s a point where production could eclipse corporate orders with the current path things appear to be on.
The Chinese could do some coordinated push to take marketshare if they have state backing and are willing to accept medium term losses.
But then every western government will not allow the import of those products because of “national security”
I would by some backdoored Chinese RAM right about now. I have nothing to hide. if it comes without US five eyes backdoors, all the better.
I have nothing to hide.
What’s your bank account number?
I expect that China is likely investing in 1 due to industrial policy. When 2 happens, it is going to collapse the industry.
It will likely be a combination of both. As prices increase, new fabs become more financially lucrative and viable. Demand will also fall as the bubble bursts, but likely will not go back to that it was either.
Agreed. They are building new factories now that will come online in several years
Who are “they”? The current crisis is not due to Samsung, SK Hynix or Micron having capacity issues. They don’t want to up their production currently as they plan for the AI bubble to burst and sitting on product when that happens will be costly.
CXMT is already making RAM.
https://www.cxmt.com/en/product.html
https://www.techspot.com/review/3089-ddr5-made-in-china/
Might have to sneak it through Canada.
Pretty sure this problem goes away once the Chinese are able to produce either equivalent ram or at least something good enough for manufactures to start using.
Don’t worry – monthly RAM subscriptions solve this!
60 minutes of use for free with subscription. Must sign up for automatic payments.
And then each additional 15 min increments are $20. And the timer is always rounded up per session.
That’s nividia’s business plan.
Also after 12. Months, the monthly subscription will double and hopefully you won’t notice since the payments are automatically taken out of your account.
Let’s talk about ram leasing ! We can offer you a brand new pc if you get our 72 months ram leasing contract ! I will even add a ram dissipator if you get our fidelity card !
Either the AI bubble pops and the demand drops, or the AI industry becomes stable and supply increases.
I’m inclined to bet on the bubble popping. There are real businesses to be built on top of generative AI, but most of the current players have high costs and a long way to go before their revenue comes even close.
The bubble popping will be the point where ai companies have to charge what it costs to run these huge models.
If Elon was burned down it might help. Wouldn’t hurt at least. Well except Elon. Burning is painful as hell.
Not this year at least.
Unless the AI bubble pops it’s going to take a long time for companies to scale up production. As long as AI is still in vogue it’s going to gobble up more and more ram.
I’d say it’s certainly possible for the economics and business strategy to shift in a manner where consumers get a much worse deal like this indefinitely. But it’s really haad to say if it’s actually going to play out that way or we experience a return to the previous equilibrium
If enough manufacturers exit the consumer space, like Micron is doing …
It will end when western society crashes in 2 more years.
I think the era of personal computing is dying out and remotely hosted software in data centers is superceding it. Even if AI overarching goals of reaching “true AI” fail, the data centers will be repurposed for literally anything else from hosting gaming to professional software to video processing, media, etc… People in rich countries will always be able to build their own personal computer for their own consumption but the people from poor countries are not in that position and will be the primary clients of these data centers.
You’ve got it backwards. Rich countries have the infrastructure for networked solutions.
Developing countries don’t have reliable fast internet or reliable power to rely so heavily on cloud services.
Better yet, it’s gonna be an opportunity for western infrastructure companies to enslave, yet again, the underdeveloped with predatory infrastructure loans like they did back in post-WW2.
I think most poor countries today are more likely to offer an internet connection that can bearably support cloud services than they are to offer their working people with a good enough income to be able to afford the future price of personal computers.
It’s also to the benefit of their capitalist class to develop internet infrastructure so that’s another motive to actually do it
