Wildfire season may get off to a relatively quiet start in Canada but lingering drought and a warm summer could tip the scales towards another severe year, experts say.

Wildfire expert Mike Flannigan says this year will be his “litmus test” for whether Canada’s wildfire seasons, already in uncharted territory and fuelled by human-caused climate change, have entered a “new reality.”

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    Canada’s managed forests have in recent years started to release more carbon they absorb, reinforcing a climate feedback loop. In the most striking example, the 2023 wildfires released more planet-warming emissions than almost any country on Earth, save for China, India and the United States, a NASA study found.

    Extreme wildfire behaviour is also becoming more common, Flannigan said. Wildfires such as the Jasper 2024 complex can burn so intensely they generate their own thunderstorms that spawn lighting strikes and start new spot fires. The 2023 season saw the most fire-generated thunderstorms recorded in a season, with more than 140 in Canada alone, Flannigan said. The previous global record was 100, set two years earlier.